Filippo Valsorda argued last week that AES-128 holds up against quantum computers. [PQ]probe scan data adds the empirical layer: AES-128-only hosts have deployed hybrid PQC key exchange at roughly 8 times the rate of AES-256-only hosts. They upgraded the cipher and left the key exchange alone. Audit checklists treating AES-256 as a quantum-preparedness criterion check the cipher when the quantum threat is on the key exchange.
Filippo Valsorda has reversed his position on hybrid signatures: pure ML-DSA-44 is fine for sigs, hybrid stays for KEX, non-PQ KEX is a potential active compromise. The shift puts BSI's hybrid mandate and the new Geomys/OpenSSH posture on a collision course. Scanners will need to report against both.
Both combine X25519 and ML-KEM-768 with identical wire sizes. The combiners differ. Vendor documentation routinely treats them as synonyms. Treating them that way in a migration plan is a defect.
Classical TLS 1.3 is 4 to 6 KB. Hybrid key exchange plus ML-DSA certificates is 15 to 20 KB. That gap crosses IW10, QUIC 3x amplification, and DNSSEC boundaries. Reference tables plus a calculator for your specific stack.
Microsoft Security published a Cryptographic Posture Management framework that organizes PQC work across code, network, runtime, and storage. The network-domain starter steps give you inventory of where encrypted sessions live. A companion layer answers what those sessions are negotiating, and that pairing is where a migration plan comes together.
Sectigo announced Private PQC on April 14, issuing ML-DSA-signed certificates from a private CA. ML-DSA defends signature authentication. Harvest-now-decrypt-later is addressed by ML-KEM in the handshake. Both belong on the migration plan; knowing which layer each covers keeps the scoping honest.
Germany’s Quantum Computing Competition funds neutral-atom consortia targeting 4,000 qubits by 2030. The Oratomic/Caltech estimates put ECC-256 at risk from approximately 26,000 neutral-atom qubits. One scaling step apart.
A new paper finds structural gaps in the formal verification behind libcrux, the ML-KEM library used by Signal, Google, Firefox, and the Linux Foundation. The proofs are real. They cover less than procurement language suggests.
Two papers from Oratomic/Caltech and Google Quantum AI confirm ECC-256 breaks one to two orders of magnitude faster than RSA-2048. The most modern cryptographic deployments are the most exposed.
Google committed to completing PQC migration by 2029, well ahead of regulatory deadlines. Their acceleration matches what we see in deployment: the tooling works, hybrid PQC is a config change on most cloud infrastructure, and the real bottleneck is inventory, not research.
China will finalize independent PQC standards by 2029 on structureless lattice math, diverging from NIST. Organizations with cross-jurisdictional exposure now face parallel migration tracks.
Aer Lingus gets a B from SSL Labs and an F from pqprobe. Both grades are correct. They answer different questions, and the gap between them is where the real risk lives.
A researcher confident enough to put a hard date on Shor’s algorithm doesn’t know the protocol it breaks. The gap between theoretical physics and operational security is where risk lives.
IBM published a quantum-centric supercomputing blueprint. Qutwo signed enterprise orchestration deals. These are not physics experiments. They are procurement decisions.
More than 90% of origin servers negotiate zero post-quantum key exchange. The IETF is debating the 2035 destination. Most organizations haven’t met the 2027 starting line.
COM(2026) 13 adds the first explicit PQC requirement to EU law. BSI wrote the guidance and co-chaired the EU roadmap. We scanned bsi.bund.de. No post-quantum key exchange.
Three days after we argued that edge PQC numbers create a false floor, Cloudflare launched origin-server tracking on Radar. The gap narrowed from 60% vs 1% to 60% vs some-fraction-of-10%. Still enormous. Still the most important number in PQC.
A group of engineering professors and PQC hardware executives have announced their "apocalypse" algorithm breaks RSA-2048 in 11 hours. However, it failed initial scrutiny, which reveals how commercial incentives threaten to distort PQC migration.
Google won’t add post-quantum X.509 certificates to the Chrome Root Store. Instead, Chrome is building Merkle Tree Certificates — and the migration target just moved for everyone.
Which of your vendors are actually shipping post-quantum cryptography? We mapped 28+ vendors across seven categories and checked announcements against TLS handshakes.
Australia’s Signals Directorate published a quantum primer with no qubit estimates. That tells you everything about what actually matters for PQC migration.
BSI published 70 pages of post-quantum guidance. Four years later, 28 out of 150 companies responded to a survey about what they’d done. The manual was never the problem.